Pre-market is at $0.179, ~$1.79B FDV on the assumed 10B supply.

But pre-market is pricing the FDV, not the float. At TGE, only about 10% will be circulating (some say even less).

Real day-one market cap is closer to $180M or less.

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But how many are actually investible in a current crypto environment that focuses on:

1) revenue to holders

2) revenue even if it doesn’t get distributed. Yet.

3) protocols/tokens will strong narrative & mindshare that might survive a bear market.

I tried to figure this out.

I got most data from the DefiLlama, Coinmarketcap and mindshare protocols (Dexu, Moni, Lunarcrush etc.).

I used Claude Code to do the numbers and reduce my own biases as I would’ve excluded some tokens from this list (like XRP, ADA, BCH… but they survived multiple cycles and have staying power stemming from entrenched liquidity).

Claude still make many mistakes that I debugging took 10x time than writing this article so take the spreadsheet with a grain of salt (link at the end of the post).

The result: 132 investible tokens across 12 categories. 45 of them pay you to hold (excluded those with very low revenue).

$1.8B annualized flowing to token holders.

The categories are my sole discretio…

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Your timeline is quieter. AI posts and rage-bait dominates.

But is it real or just vibes?

Looking at the data… it is real.

But the story is more interesting than ‘crypto is dying.’

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With P/E ratio at x40.5, it’s higher than the x32 before the 1929 crash.

And according to what Warren Buffett called “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment” the ratio of total market cap to GDP now sits at 230%.

It’s 77% higher than the long-term trend. Before the 1929 crash the ratio stood at 130%.

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Everyone was sharing higher Bitcoin targets. I wanted a different framework to look for where the crowd could be wrong and position differently.

The goal was simple: find ideas that already exist but are ignored, disliked, or misunderstood.

Before I share the 2026 edition, here’s a clean recap of what actually mattered in 2025. What we got right. What we got wrong.

And what we should learn from it.

If you don’t review your own thinking, you’re not investing, but just guessing.

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I feel validated for my thesis why crypto underperformed other sectors for a year now.

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Instead of getting lost in daily dramas of crypto X you look at the long-term shifts. That is how we should approach crypto as well.

It is not only about narratives quickly shifting but about how the entire order of the industry changed.

Crypto is not the same market it was in 2017 or 2021.

Here is how I believe the order has changed.

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Yet I don’t think they are dead. With less noise, rewards should be less diluted.

But the new reality is different: you have to use protocols consistently. One transaction isn’t enough. Teams are rewarding real users, not simple farm hunters (oh, the irony).

So here are 10 protocols I am farming right now.

These are not simple farms but also good products that you should get value even if your airdrop ends up smaller than expected.

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What Powell signals at Jackson Hole (Thu, Aug 22) and how the Fed sets the rate dots at the Sept 16–17 FOMC.

• Dovish tone → 2Y yields and DXY ease → BTC/ETH pump

• Hawkish cut or higher-for-longer → risk comes off and alts dump first

That’s the results of ChatGPT 5 Thinking and Deepseek’s Deepthink models. But many on X agree, explaining the recent altcoin dip.

Tbh, crypto's reliance on macro factors is frustrating, but the last cycle topping with global rate hikes shows we can't ignore them.

Yet as Jake from Wintermute says above, so do my AI models paint a bullish future: interest rate cuts are coming. The uncertainty is when, how often and how steep are the cuts.

Thus we are at the exact opposite of how the last cycle ended: cuts are coming, so bull market top is farther away than we think?

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You wake up slightly tired at the Four Seasons Hotel. Two Negronis from last night are still pounding your head.

A notification: Checking your Rabby wallet on the iPhone 23 XXL. BTC is down 3% overnight. Sailor’s Strategy FUD again.

Still, BTC trades at $1.2M. You smile. That crazy Udi was right!

You retired your bloodline after buying in “late” at $114k with 3x leverage on Hyperliquid.

Although Cobie was slightly off: the hard road was from 80k to 250k. The easy road went from $250k to $1m.

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How motivated are you to chase new hot projects these days?

I posted on X that my motivation to chase new projects has waned. Probably the most since I joined crypto in 2018. Even during bear markets, it felt better.

Wonder if I’m the only one? Maybe I’m lazy… Or bored? Although it’s not quite that.

I'm more cautious about depositing large % of my portfolio into new protocols than I was before.

In the past bull runs, money flowed more freely. It was easier to make gains, but now, money is tight as alt season hasn't arrived yet.

The risk-reward ratio has changed, too: while hacks and exploits are less common now, the rewards from airdrops for the vast majority of projects have decreased.

Money is diluted among a large number of protocols. Nothing stands out too much.

I also feel that there are too many new projects with just incremental improvements without real 0 to 1 innovation. Mike Dudas seems to agree.

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Get it right and you make serious money. Come in late and you become exit liquidity.

The best ROI comes from:

• Identifying the narrative early

• Mapping the capital‑rotation playbook before everyone else

• Exiting at peak inflated expectations

• Banking the profit

Then ask: is another narrative wave coming?

Narratives recycle, but speculation returns in waves when:

1. The narrative is backed by genuine technical innovation, so it can bounce back after the first‑wave hype fades.

2. A fresh catalyst appears.

3. A committed community keeps building after the hype dies.

I wrote more on what I mean in the post below:

Ordinals on Bitcoin is a just an example. You can see clearly the 4 speculative waves from the chart below.

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Especially in this dystopian world of politics, arts, journalism, or many other industries where the line between truth and lies is unclear, crypto is straightforward:

If you are right, you earn money. If you are wrong, you lose. It's very simple.

And yet, I the trap I fall into is a very basic too: failing to reevaluate my portfolio when conditions changed. While I traded alts, I got too complacent with my ‘untouchable, HODL’ bags, notably ETH.

Of course, adapting to new realities is easier said than done.

The number of variables we need to input is overwhelming, so we end up with simple narratives like HODL that don’t require actively monitoring the market.

But what if HODL meta is now dead? And what role does crypto play in the changing world? What else have we missed?

In this blog I’ll share what I think has changed significantly in the market.

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End of the HODL

Let’s t…

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Got early on a protocol, deposited some SOL, swapped a few times? Here’s a $10k airdrop for you. I once even earned $120k USD airdrop from filling a Google Docs form (Inverse Finance airdrop).

While the crypto market seems boring and dominated by macro factors, there are a new cohort of exiting and tokenless protocols for you to try out. In this post I share nine!

Note: This isn't a sponsored post. However, I reached out to teams to boost my referral links with extra perks for both you and me. Making it a win-win scenario.

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My X feed is filled with macro takes instead of airdrop farming guides or memecoins to buy.

As I type this, both crypto and TradFi markets are in “extreme fear” levels (even after lifting some tariffs).

Navigating crypto has never been more challenging, and I've never felt more inadequate as a crypto content creator. The temptation to post my mediocre macro takes is strong.

I share DonAlt's sentiment that in this crazy world, crypto is an under-thought.

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• The market is recovering slowly.

• Many projects can’t delay any longer.

These projects will test the waters, paving the way for others.

In this post, I want to highlight protocols frequently appearing in my X feed. However, it seems not everyone is familiar with what they do.

I once did a similar blog post a year ago on top 7 projects and plan to do these more often so feel free to subscribe.

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So, if you are one of those scrollers on X who waits for the token and airdrop to launch for the hyped projects (but don’t really know what they do), this post is for you.

Note: This list is based on my X feed and my curiosity to explore these projects. It may not represent Kaito's mindshare map, and your X feed might differ.

Initia - Multichain Garden of Eden

Initia marked the first sale on Cobie's Echo fundraising platform within his Echonomist group.

Cobie has only did three project fundings in his group, which might make …

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Unless you actively try to engage with crypto, you can easily go about your daily life with minimal exposure to crypto.

The problem, though, is when that “minimal exposure to crypto” reaches people, it’s almost always negative.

You watch Netflix’s "Squid Game” and a crypto influencer who scammed followers appears. He can’t spend a minute without checking crypto prices and demands his phone back. On that part, I can relate :(

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I was exhausted from the bull run, researching and working non-stop without any breaks. Mentally burnt out, I wanted it to STOP. When my portfolio dropped by 50%, I thought it signaled a bear run. I sold and felt relieved.

Then ETH corrected and pumped 125% to $4.8K. I was sidelined but at least farming good yields on stablecoins.

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What was the token? How much in % and USD terms did you make?

This bull run is indeed tough.

I’m down on a few recent trades, but surprisingly, I’m also badly down on some long-term holdings like STX and AR.

I’m still up on my overall portfolio this cycle despite having made 56 bad trades. (These trades involve ETH/BTC/SOL rotations. For example, if I rotate SOL to ETH and ETH underperforms SOL—even if ETH is still up in USD terms—it counts as a bad decision.)

My best decisions were: selling ETH for SOL, holding BTC, and farming airdrops.

Yet the most important decision is yet to come: when to sell it all? For this, we need to know when the cycle tops, and bear trend starts.

So, in this post I want to share my thoughts on “the market top” topic, discuss future for Ethereum, share my thoughts on token printing, and what’s coming next?

My Signal for Market Top

Leverage inevitably seeps into the system. Initially, it lifts all boat…

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That's a prediction I just made up. It might happen or it might not.

Most predictions are like this, although some are supported with (some) data. VanEck offers well-reasoned predictions, while Cathie Wood is known for making grandiose predictions with high numbers. She expects $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030. Saylor? $13m by 2045.

Here’s a great summary of predictions for 2024 by DLNews.

But how insightful and helpful are price predictions? It doesn’t really give you actionable insights besides making your diamond hands stronger to HODL.

I propose a different mental framework that can make you a better investor, not just for 2025, but for the future.

"What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"

The question by Peter Thiel intellectually challenging because it's easier to maintain the status quo than to think for yourself.

Matti proposed a rehashed framework of the question by which they evaluate their investmen…

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