Pre-market is at $0.179, ~$1.79B FDV on the assumed 10B supply.

But pre-market is pricing the FDV, not the float. At TGE, only about 10% will be circulating (some say even less).

Real day-one market cap is closer to $180M or less.

Low-float high-FDV launch like good old times :)

but with unlock cliffs at month 6 and month 12 that will test the price. Until then, expect volatility.

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Two Forces for Mega

Force one: MEGA launches and new money enters the ecosystem.

Liquid tokens finally appear in wallets of people who were already inside MegaETH. Echo holders unlock 20%. Fluffle holders unlock 50%.

Sonar Option A (no lock up, non-US) holders get a lot. Including me.

I expect a lot of selling especially from Sonar sale because these investors were planning for quick TGE. Instead, we had to hold for MONTHS.

In any case, some of the sellers will rotate a portion into memecoins, deposit into protocol as LPs, buy ‘culture tokens’ on Kumbaya, Fluffle NFTs? and whatever narrative is hottest that week.

The higher the MEGA price at TGE the stronger the wealth effect and the more it lifts the whole ecosystem. Huge dump on TGE wouldn’t be a great sign for the degen playbook.

Personally, I will be selling a bit and rotating into a few live apps plus whatever fun degen narratives/memecoins are live.

Other Fluffle and Echo holders will do the same.

That’s thousands of degens all rotating small-to-medium size from MEGA into everything else on the chain.

Force two: the 2.5% mainnet airdrop campaign amplifies it. From bread.mega

We are absolutely doing an incentives campaign for mainnet. As with most things, we’re going to be mindful of it and deploy it when it can go furthest. We want the 2nd, 3rd and 4th order actions to be possible for the incentives games so that you guys can strategize and compound.

MegaETH is one of the few crypto projects that thinks about customer LTV (lifetime value: how much a user generates for the platform over time) and CAC (customer acquisition cost: how much you pay to attract them) like a real business

Where possible, it is likely best to design incentives such that they are concentrated on new liquidity provision, since the existing $50m is already willing to LP on the basis of existing yield... Most projects just throw a yield on top, which ends up targeting the average liquidity provider, rather than the marginal one.

That design is what separates a well targeted points campaign from another mercenary farm-and-dump.

(Extra note: MegaETH has had amazing hires of the years, including paperImperium and Bread! That’s an important metric for long-term price).

When Bread wrote it a few weeks ago, most of the key apps for looping lego blocks were not live. Today Aave (with USDe by Ethena for looping) and Brix are the final live apps.

The looping stack he described is mostly live so I expect airdrop campaign details soon(ish) after TGE.

When points are live (probably mid-to-late May), farmers follow.

The flywheel is: Farmers compound TVL → TVL pulls USDM growth via the Aavethena loop → USDM growth drives Foundation buybacks from T-bill yield → more buybacks = more bid under MEGA.

Again, all of this depends on a relatively successful TGE. A dump below $1B FDV that trends downwards will reduce degen spirits.

We want to know money is possible to be made.

What Others Are Pricing

A few outside views about TGE:

Eli5defi ran a 5-method valuation and gives a ~$1.2B weighted FDV:

Premarket is telling you $1.64B. The Polymarket crowd is telling you ~$1.0B. Fundamentals support somewhere in between, weighted toward the lower end. Every major L2 token has traded below its launch FDV within 12-18 months. zkSync lost 75%. Starknet lost 90%.

Both can’t be right. Either pre-market is overheated on KPI-2 fomo and mean reverts, or Polymarket is underestimating real demand.

But what if CrypLykos is right and real float is lower than 10%?

Total circulating at launch: just ~3.86% → ~386M MEGA tokens. Roughly $66.92M market cap at TGE. Extremely tight float. All unlocked tokens at TGE come exclusively from community rounds: Echo, Fluffle, Public Sale.

Everything else?

✅ VCs + Team + Advisors (24.2%) = 100% locked (1-year cliff + 3-year vest)

✅ KPI Staking (53%) = no unlock until actual KPIs hit

✅ Foundation/Eco Reserve (7.5%) = “unlocked but kinda locked” (team-controlled, not dumping)

✅ Mainnet Campaign (2.5%) = vests 6–8 months later

If CrypLykos is right, MEGA TGEs at sub-$70M MC, not $180M. Even more violent on either side, up or down.

He compares to HYPE, where high-conviction early holders + tiny float = explosive upside.

Other good anti-bear post by Bread:

It’s not “L2 vs L1”. It’s whether chains are able to take in revenue beyond just tx fees. We do with USDm today. We have USDm with which we capture rewards from (~3% of supply / ~$5.5k/d at current rates).

The net revenue from this has already been committed to MEGA buybacks from the foundation.

That’s a good pitch.

MegaETH monetizes USDM yield instead of taxing users via sequencer margins. Different than most L2s.

Joestar’s moon math:

I think 0.5-1$ is reachable short term with incentives and new apps coming soon... Megaeth is the first infra with a clear business model and real incentives to hold the token.

That’s 3-6x from pre-market on USDM revenue alone, before any Proximity Markets bid or infra premium kicks in.

Mike Dudas (6th Man Ventures) thinks that:

“MegaETH will likely end up as a super app... a brand-first architecture where the application revenue is the primary driver.”

Vertical integration bet, not neutral rails like Solana or Ethereum.

Why MEGA is Different

Most L2 tokens capture no value. Pay gas, governance etc. MEGA has two real demand sinks.

• Speed. Mini-blocks confirm in ~10ms vs 250ms on Arbitrum, 2s on Base/Optimism, 12s on Ethereum.

  Good for trading and CLOBs like World Markets. No other EVM chain is in this latency range.

• Proximity Markets. MEGA-denominated auction for sub-1ms sequencer access. HFTs, MMs and maybe other traders will bid MEGA to put their txs on top for the sequencer. Recurring demand from the highest margin spend in crypto.

Plus the USDm loop.

According to the official MegaETH blog, USDm is issued on Ethena’s USDtb rails (BlackRock BUIDL backing). Foundation captures the yield, runs the sequencer at cost, uses net revenue to buy MEGA on market.

If Aavethena+ mega loop works, USDM supply could grow fast to reach the KPI of $500M USD.

MEGA captures trading fees + willingness-to-pay-to-be-fast + USDM yield. Three narratives to follow.

The Bad :(

Market is bearish. If macro breaks even a good ecosystems suffer.

The zkSync Era ecosystem I wrote about in 2023 looked like the same setup. Then ZK launched into the 2024 risk off window, ARB and OP were already dumping, most of my farming positions went to zero.

I’ve been wrong on bullish degen designs before. Ordinals. FriendTech. Many farms didn’t do well.

Eli5defi’s bearish points are also valid:

• unlock cliffs (Fluffle 50% TGE + 6-month vest, VC/team 1-year cliff)

• single sequencer centralization

• KPI-3 is hard ($50K daily fees for 3 apps at 30 unbroken days, any miss resets the KPI)

• L2 narrative fatigue,

• Kumbaya is 57% of all chain TVL (one app rebalancing craters the narrative).

And Avon just left their MegaETH deployment on April 24. One of the most innovative apps. Aave becomes the liquidity layer on MegaETH. But Aave itself is having a confidence test.

I don’t wanna be farmed again.

The farming itself is cheap (swap stables, run loops) and Mafia app airdrops will depend on MEGA’s price, so hope for good TGE.

What to Do on the 10 Live Apps

TL;DR

→ Cap stcUSD for yield
→ Kumbaya USDe/USDm LP + small culture token positions
→ World Markets ETH funding-rate arb. Degen trading with leverage. Or use hit.one and hope World Markets rewards hit one users,too
→ Brix small iTRY for uncorrelated hedge
→ Euporia trading/gambling

Cap (@CapApp)

• Adaptive-yield stablecoin. Mint cUSD 1:1 against USDC/USDT, stake as stcUSD for yield from permissioned strategy agents

• #1 fee generator on chain at ~$21K/day, team’s publicly named KPI-3 front-runner

• $12.9M raised across three rounds, Franklin Templeton-led seed with Nomura’s Laser Digital and Kraken Ventures

• Likely first Mafia app to launch its own token after MEGA (TradFi backers accelerate the timeline)

• What to do: stake stcUSD for yield, use cUSD as your MegaETH settlement dollar

Kumbaya (@kumbaya_xyz)

• #1 DEX on MegaETH at ~$59M TVL

• Culture token launchpad is inside the DEX (no fragment-after-graduation like pump.fun → Raydium on Solana)

• USDe/USDm pool (~$6M) is the routing leg of the Aavethena loop

• Daily fees ~$2K, no disclosed raise. Although most DEXs airdrops suck now.

• What to do: LP the USDe/USDm pool for fee capture as Aavethena scales, degen gamble memecoins if you wish

World Markets (@worldmarketsinc)

• Unified-margin CLOB across spot, perps, and lending: one collateral covers all three

• $11.6M TVL, ~$4K/day in fees (#2 on chain), no disclosed raise

• Up to 100x capital efficiency vs fragmented DeFi (team’s claim)

• Cross-margin needs margin updates and liquidations to settle in the same block, only works on MegaETH because of speed (they say)

• What to do: funding rate arb on ETH (long spot + short perp from one collateral), or keep ETH earning lending yield while opening a perp against it

• Not the best UI for me, tbh.

Brix (@brix_money)

• Tokenized emerging markets yield. iTRY is tokenized Turkish Lira money-market (~20% local APY), custodied by regulated issuers

• $5.5M raised April 2026: FRWRD and Is Asset Management led, Circle Ventures + ConsenSys + Borderless Capital participating

• Only non-crypto yield in the Mafia cohort, uncorrelated hedge if macro turns harder

• More EM currencies coming (BRL, INR are the obvious next steps)

• What to do: small iTRY allocation for the uncorrelated leg. Although I bet delta-neutral positions will be sexy bets for USD.

Euphoria (@Euphoria_fi)

• Tap-trading mechanic: tap squares on a grid to predict short-term price moves

• $7.5M raised ($2.5M pre-seed + $5M seed), Karatage led, 100+ investors

• Most-hyped consumer launch of the 2.0 cohort

• Currently closed mainnet cohort (AMA participants + early testers), full public launch mid-May

• Notcoin on TON dragged 30M+ wallets into a chain nobody had heard of. Euphoria is the closest profile in the Mafia cohort

• What to do: get on the wait list, watch the mid-May launch closely

Showdown (@Showdown_TCG)

• Heads-up Texas Hold’em

• What to do: play cash matches if you’re a poker player. Ranked play weights the airdrop toward active players

Stomp (@stompdotgg)

• Fully onchain PvP monster battler (Pokemon meets Smash Bros), built by Owen Shen of 0xmons

• First chain where the game loop actually works: every attack is a transaction

• What to do: collect and battle. Airdrop favors active players

Hit.One (@hitdotone)

• 666x+ leverage perps wrapped as a mobile tap game

• Fully live on MegaETH, no public funding disclosed

• Tests whether gamified extreme-leverage trading can pull mass retail

• What to do: small size only. It’s a casino, not an investment product

Use my referral: https://app.hit.one/r/D2DPUK

Pump Party (@pumpparty)

• Live crypto gameshow streaming Monday, Wednesday, Friday at 9pm EST from Manhattan

• 15-minute episodes, viewers play skill mini-games (burger builder, zyn toss) and split prize pools

• Instant onchain payouts via MegaETH

• The bet isn’t the app, it’s whether a stream-native crypto product can pull normies onchain

• What to do: tune in, play. Watch viewership growth: if 10K+ continuous viewers = the app is working

Ubitel (@getubitel)

• Decentralized eSIM, prepaid cell data in 200+ countries, paid in ETH or UBI. Has its own token already live (different category from the tokenless Mafia apps)

• What to do: buy a plan if you travel.

Off topic. Actually, I like these kind of apps. Gnosis is building a non-financial app stack as well with VPNs, etc.

Nectar AI (@TryNectarAI)

• AI companions and roleplay platform, characters mint as NFTs (adult platform). Big category in web2 (Character.ai, Replika), nobody has done well onchain version

• What to do: don’t tell you mom and gf about it.

The wider ecosystem goes way beyond these eleven.

Bread says ~120 apps are live or in deployment via rabbithole.megaeth.com.

chefgoose’s Onboarding Guide catalogs the fifty most relevant: Prism (super app), SectorOne (DLMM DEX), Tulpea (RWA lending), Huntertales (idle GameFi, $CROWN), TopStrike (football cards), Aqua (liquid staking), Blackhaven, Blitzo, plus Aave, GMX, and gTrade non-native. Worth bookmarking.

On MEGA, I have Echo + Fluffle + Sonar Option A unlocks coming.

Will play the TGE, sell just a bit to rotate into the ecosystem above over the first two weeks. Wanna farm like good old times.

Waiting for points campaign details to start.

TL;DR

TGE April 30. Points follow. Hopefully it creates a wealth effect and MEGA tokens stay in the ecosystem. Even if sold into USDM.

Don’t wanna see outflows from Mega to other chains.

Degen carefully. Not financial advice.

But how many are actually investible in a current crypto environment that focuses on:

1) revenue to holders

2) revenue even if it doesn’t get distributed. Yet.

3) protocols/tokens will strong narrative & mindshare that might survive a bear market.

I tried to figure this out.

I got most data from the DefiLlama, Coinmarketcap and mindshare protocols (Dexu, Moni, Lunarcrush etc.).

I used Claude Code to do the numbers and reduce my own biases as I would’ve excluded some tokens from this list (like XRP, ADA, BCH… but they survived multiple cycles and have staying power stemming from entrenched liquidity).

Claude still make many mistakes that I debugging took 10x time than writing this article so take the spreadsheet with a grain of salt (link at the end of the post).

The result: 132 investible tokens across 12 categories. 45 of them pay you to hold (excluded those with very low revenue).

$1.8B annualized flowing to token holders.

The categories are my sole discretio…

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Your timeline is quieter. AI posts and rage-bait dominates.

But is it real or just vibes?

Looking at the data… it is real.

But the story is more interesting than ‘crypto is dying.’

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With P/E ratio at x40.5, it’s higher than the x32 before the 1929 crash.

And according to what Warren Buffett called “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment” the ratio of total market cap to GDP now sits at 230%.

It’s 77% higher than the long-term trend. Before the 1929 crash the ratio stood at 130%.

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Everyone was sharing higher Bitcoin targets. I wanted a different framework to look for where the crowd could be wrong and position differently.

The goal was simple: find ideas that already exist but are ignored, disliked, or misunderstood.

Before I share the 2026 edition, here’s a clean recap of what actually mattered in 2025. What we got right. What we got wrong.

And what we should learn from it.

If you don’t review your own thinking, you’re not investing, but just guessing.

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I feel validated for my thesis why crypto underperformed other sectors for a year now.

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Instead of getting lost in daily dramas of crypto X you look at the long-term shifts. That is how we should approach crypto as well.

It is not only about narratives quickly shifting but about how the entire order of the industry changed.

Crypto is not the same market it was in 2017 or 2021.

Here is how I believe the order has changed.

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Yet I don’t think they are dead. With less noise, rewards should be less diluted.

But the new reality is different: you have to use protocols consistently. One transaction isn’t enough. Teams are rewarding real users, not simple farm hunters (oh, the irony).

So here are 10 protocols I am farming right now.

These are not simple farms but also good products that you should get value even if your airdrop ends up smaller than expected.

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What Powell signals at Jackson Hole (Thu, Aug 22) and how the Fed sets the rate dots at the Sept 16–17 FOMC.

• Dovish tone → 2Y yields and DXY ease → BTC/ETH pump

• Hawkish cut or higher-for-longer → risk comes off and alts dump first

That’s the results of ChatGPT 5 Thinking and Deepseek’s Deepthink models. But many on X agree, explaining the recent altcoin dip.

Tbh, crypto's reliance on macro factors is frustrating, but the last cycle topping with global rate hikes shows we can't ignore them.

Yet as Jake from Wintermute says above, so do my AI models paint a bullish future: interest rate cuts are coming. The uncertainty is when, how often and how steep are the cuts.

Thus we are at the exact opposite of how the last cycle ended: cuts are coming, so bull market top is farther away than we think?

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You wake up slightly tired at the Four Seasons Hotel. Two Negronis from last night are still pounding your head.

A notification: Checking your Rabby wallet on the iPhone 23 XXL. BTC is down 3% overnight. Sailor’s Strategy FUD again.

Still, BTC trades at $1.2M. You smile. That crazy Udi was right!

You retired your bloodline after buying in “late” at $114k with 3x leverage on Hyperliquid.

Although Cobie was slightly off: the hard road was from 80k to 250k. The easy road went from $250k to $1m.

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How motivated are you to chase new hot projects these days?

I posted on X that my motivation to chase new projects has waned. Probably the most since I joined crypto in 2018. Even during bear markets, it felt better.

Wonder if I’m the only one? Maybe I’m lazy… Or bored? Although it’s not quite that.

I'm more cautious about depositing large % of my portfolio into new protocols than I was before.

In the past bull runs, money flowed more freely. It was easier to make gains, but now, money is tight as alt season hasn't arrived yet.

The risk-reward ratio has changed, too: while hacks and exploits are less common now, the rewards from airdrops for the vast majority of projects have decreased.

Money is diluted among a large number of protocols. Nothing stands out too much.

I also feel that there are too many new projects with just incremental improvements without real 0 to 1 innovation. Mike Dudas seems to agree.

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Get it right and you make serious money. Come in late and you become exit liquidity.

The best ROI comes from:

• Identifying the narrative early

• Mapping the capital‑rotation playbook before everyone else

• Exiting at peak inflated expectations

• Banking the profit

Then ask: is another narrative wave coming?

Narratives recycle, but speculation returns in waves when:

1. The narrative is backed by genuine technical innovation, so it can bounce back after the first‑wave hype fades.

2. A fresh catalyst appears.

3. A committed community keeps building after the hype dies.

I wrote more on what I mean in the post below:

Ordinals on Bitcoin is a just an example. You can see clearly the 4 speculative waves from the chart below.

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Especially in this dystopian world of politics, arts, journalism, or many other industries where the line between truth and lies is unclear, crypto is straightforward:

If you are right, you earn money. If you are wrong, you lose. It's very simple.

And yet, I the trap I fall into is a very basic too: failing to reevaluate my portfolio when conditions changed. While I traded alts, I got too complacent with my ‘untouchable, HODL’ bags, notably ETH.

Of course, adapting to new realities is easier said than done.

The number of variables we need to input is overwhelming, so we end up with simple narratives like HODL that don’t require actively monitoring the market.

But what if HODL meta is now dead? And what role does crypto play in the changing world? What else have we missed?

In this blog I’ll share what I think has changed significantly in the market.

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End of the HODL

Let’s t…

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Got early on a protocol, deposited some SOL, swapped a few times? Here’s a $10k airdrop for you. I once even earned $120k USD airdrop from filling a Google Docs form (Inverse Finance airdrop).

While the crypto market seems boring and dominated by macro factors, there are a new cohort of exiting and tokenless protocols for you to try out. In this post I share nine!

Note: This isn't a sponsored post. However, I reached out to teams to boost my referral links with extra perks for both you and me. Making it a win-win scenario.

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My X feed is filled with macro takes instead of airdrop farming guides or memecoins to buy.

As I type this, both crypto and TradFi markets are in “extreme fear” levels (even after lifting some tariffs).

Navigating crypto has never been more challenging, and I've never felt more inadequate as a crypto content creator. The temptation to post my mediocre macro takes is strong.

I share DonAlt's sentiment that in this crazy world, crypto is an under-thought.

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• The market is recovering slowly.

• Many projects can’t delay any longer.

These projects will test the waters, paving the way for others.

In this post, I want to highlight protocols frequently appearing in my X feed. However, it seems not everyone is familiar with what they do.

I once did a similar blog post a year ago on top 7 projects and plan to do these more often so feel free to subscribe.

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So, if you are one of those scrollers on X who waits for the token and airdrop to launch for the hyped projects (but don’t really know what they do), this post is for you.

Note: This list is based on my X feed and my curiosity to explore these projects. It may not represent Kaito's mindshare map, and your X feed might differ.

Initia - Multichain Garden of Eden

Initia marked the first sale on Cobie's Echo fundraising platform within his Echonomist group.

Cobie has only did three project fundings in his group, which might make …

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Unless you actively try to engage with crypto, you can easily go about your daily life with minimal exposure to crypto.

The problem, though, is when that “minimal exposure to crypto” reaches people, it’s almost always negative.

You watch Netflix’s "Squid Game” and a crypto influencer who scammed followers appears. He can’t spend a minute without checking crypto prices and demands his phone back. On that part, I can relate :(

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I was exhausted from the bull run, researching and working non-stop without any breaks. Mentally burnt out, I wanted it to STOP. When my portfolio dropped by 50%, I thought it signaled a bear run. I sold and felt relieved.

Then ETH corrected and pumped 125% to $4.8K. I was sidelined but at least farming good yields on stablecoins.

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What was the token? How much in % and USD terms did you make?

This bull run is indeed tough.

I’m down on a few recent trades, but surprisingly, I’m also badly down on some long-term holdings like STX and AR.

I’m still up on my overall portfolio this cycle despite having made 56 bad trades. (These trades involve ETH/BTC/SOL rotations. For example, if I rotate SOL to ETH and ETH underperforms SOL—even if ETH is still up in USD terms—it counts as a bad decision.)

My best decisions were: selling ETH for SOL, holding BTC, and farming airdrops.

Yet the most important decision is yet to come: when to sell it all? For this, we need to know when the cycle tops, and bear trend starts.

So, in this post I want to share my thoughts on “the market top” topic, discuss future for Ethereum, share my thoughts on token printing, and what’s coming next?

My Signal for Market Top

Leverage inevitably seeps into the system. Initially, it lifts all boat…

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That's a prediction I just made up. It might happen or it might not.

Most predictions are like this, although some are supported with (some) data. VanEck offers well-reasoned predictions, while Cathie Wood is known for making grandiose predictions with high numbers. She expects $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030. Saylor? $13m by 2045.

Here’s a great summary of predictions for 2024 by DLNews.

But how insightful and helpful are price predictions? It doesn’t really give you actionable insights besides making your diamond hands stronger to HODL.

I propose a different mental framework that can make you a better investor, not just for 2025, but for the future.

"What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"

The question by Peter Thiel intellectually challenging because it's easier to maintain the status quo than to think for yourself.

Matti proposed a rehashed framework of the question by which they evaluate their investmen…

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