Bull or Bear: And What's next?
Bitcoin is in a confirmed bull market, but we are not yet at euphoric levels seen in past cycle tops. On-chain data suggest room for upside, but some profit-taking is happening.
Last cycle, I sold everything I had when ETH dropped by 50%, from $4.3k to $2.15k, around June 2021.
I was exhausted from the bull run, researching and working non-stop without any breaks. Mentally burnt out, I wanted it to STOP. When my portfolio dropped by 50%, I thought it signaled a bear run. I sold and felt relieved.
Then ETH corrected and pumped 125% to $4.8K. I was sidelined but at least farming good yields on stablecoins.
I think we are at a similar stage right now, but this time I feel mentally much stronger. So I HODL my bags dearly for a recovery.
But what if I’m wrong and this is actually THE BEAR RUN?
FEAR dominates the sentiment: Trump tariffs, stocks at all-time highs could dump, taking crypto with them. Then, you read that Warren Buffett is sitting on a lot of cash (maybe he knows something you don't, you think). Smart-asses on X post doom, claiming this is the end.
Goblin Town.
In light of this, I refuse to be overwhelmed by FUD and want to share market charts and insights for your consideration.
Is BTC still in a Bull Market?
The following dashboards are from CryptoQuant determining if the price of bitcoin is overvalued (expensive) or undervalued (cheap).
MVRV Z-Score
It shows when Bitcoin is overvalued (red zone) or undervalued (green zone) based on historical trends.
Bitcoin is not in the overvaluation zone, but well above undervaluation levels.
Upside remains, but we’re mid-cycle, not early.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
NUPL measures whether the market is in fear, optimism, or euphoria based on unrealized profits.
Currently in the Optimism/Denial phase (~0.48), meaning most holders are in profit.
Historically, Greed/Euphoria (above 0.6) signals market tops.
Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
SOPR tracks if long-term holders are selling at a profit or loss. Values above 1 indicate profit-taking.
Currently at 1.5, meaning long-term holders are taking profits, but not aggressively.
Sustained selling above 1 is normal in a healthy uptrend.
CryptoQuant P&L Index
This index combines MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR to assess overall market valuation.
Above its 365-day moving average, confirming a bull market continuation.
A spike above 1.0 signals risk of cycle top formation.
CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator
If you continuously follow just one Bitcoin holder dashboard, make it this one. This momentum indicator tracks bull and bear cycles using the P&L Index.
Bitcoin is firmly in the Bull Zone (orange), confirming a strong uptrend.
Not yet in Overheated Bull Zone (red), which has historically marked cycle tops.
TL;DR – What’s Next?
Bitcoin is mid-cycle in a bull run.
Holders are taking profits, but no extreme euphoria yet.
Price appreciation still possible before overvaluation.
If history repeats, Bitcoin still has room to run before hitting a major cycle top.
Funny enough, but the chart CZ shared on X is how I feel about where we’re heading next:
Bitcoin is in a confirmed bull market, but we are not yet at euphoric levels seen in past cycle tops. On-chain data suggest room for upside, but some profit-taking is happening.
Ethereum… Oh Dear
ETH dumped by 70% against BTC over the past two years. And by 48% since December, 2024 alone!
ETH ETF outflows don’t show any sign of bullishness either.
But is ETH the best R/R opportunity in crypto right now?
I shared on X that ETH catalysts are slowly lining up:
Leadership changes at EF (Aya is out, but new Executive Director TBA)
Decision to scale the L1, starting with gas limits but change in mindset itself is important.
Pectra brings EIP-7702 (bye bye approvals) and the new Open Intents Framework by EF to improve L2 UX
Tired of memecoins, community hopefully shifts to fundamentals
Hype over MegaETH shows that 1) ppl still like innovative L2s, 2) successful L2 validates modular thesis
Base just announced reducing block times from 2 seconds to 200 milliseconds and L3s (Similar thesis to MegaETH). Although I’m not really a fan of Base.
Ethereum is the best chain for asset tokenization. BlackRock shills it.
ETH is just down a lot. Like really a lot lol
The problem is that these changes take time: L1 scaling will take years, and UX improvements need to be adapted by multiple partners (Base is notably missing from Open Intents Framework).
My biggest worry is that ETH will totally miss this bull run and will only be a good buy during the next bear run.
Yet sentiment can shift fast. If EF and the broader community sees REAL signs of 1) scaling the L1, 2) improving L2 modular UX 3) shift in Ethereum’s loser mentality, then ETH could rebound and dominate the 2nd part of this cycle.
For now, SOL's market cap is 3.8 times lower, offering a superior user experience and benefiting from an increasing Lindy effect (as long as it remains online).
These factors will challenge ETH's dominance in the smart contract sector.
Altcoins: What to Consider?
Robust Speculation Index measures whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over multiple timeframes.
Currently at low levels (~0.0-0.2), meaning BTC is outperforming most altcoins.
Historically, altcoin rallies have followed periods of low speculation.
This is a similar metric to Crypto Breadth chart that Aylo shared on X, stating that altcoins bottomed and we could suspect a rally (if BTC holds).
The problem is: what altcoins to buy? I have a few criteria:
No huge unlocks short-term
Product PMF
Revenue sharing (token buy backs) is a big plus
My top conviction bet is FLUID. This lending protocol, just a few months old, consistently challenges Uniswap in DEX trading volume. FLUID has announced buy-back plans set to be implemented soon.
Other looking good alts:
ENA: Survived Bybit hack, multiple liquidations waves. $100M recent round at $0.4USD…. and a growing suit of protocols/CEXs implementing sUSDe makes me really bullish. Problem? Huge ENA unlocks.
$SKY (formerly $MKR): Good post by Taiki.
• $30M/month buybacks (~1.9% of supply)
• USDS (formerly DAI) supply near ATHs
• SPK farming = more demand & revenue
• Stablecoin regulation could be a tailwind$KMNO: Dominating lending on SOL with $1.8B in TVL while MC stands at just $85M. Problem? Solana chain users are traders, not yield farmers. But this can change any moment.
Sonic’s $S: Growing DeFi ecosystem (Aave and other key protocols deploying), 200M S airdrop, good UX, growing mindshare on X, no big unlocks left…
HYPE: A lot has been said on X about great tokenomics, strong community
PENDLE: When fundamentals matter, and degens look for yield, Pendle is the place to go
AAVE: Undergoing tokenomic changes with Aave 3.3 upgrade and strong revenue.
What else am I missing?
On top, I’m excited for the upcoming MegaETH, Monad, Farcaster, Eclipse, Initia, Linea and Polymarket token drops.
Macro, Macro, Macro
I truly buy into the story of Bitcoin as digital gold. I prefer Bitcoin to gold due to its self-custody and transferability features.
The current macro set up is the best testing ground for BTC. Tariffs, wars, fiscal deficits, money printing… you name it.
In my Crypto Truths & Lies for the Year 2025 blog post I shared BlackRocks research that Bitcoin sometimes sells-off at the start of a big macro event. Yet chaos, turmoil, potential for money printing is bullish for BTC.
I believe this is exactly what's happening now. Trump's abrupt decisions to deviate from the established world order are causing panic in the market. However, people will soon adjust to these new global realities.
Nothing has really changed in the world that should undermine crypto. In fact, the opposite is true. Day after day, we're seeing bullish moves from the SEC—dropping lawsuits, introducing new crypto bills, and a generally positive government stance towards crypto.
But Ansem is right here that when bullish news cannot force price higher, it is bearish. The market needs some time to adjust.
However, I hope that the market will correct itself faster than his bullish prediction for 2026/27.
And if Raoul Pal’s chart and insight are correct, then BTC price should catch up with the Global M2 supply sooner than 2026.
TL;DR, I’m still bullish and I believe patience will be rewarded.
great research article sir
Great choice of coins, we have a similar vision. I'd add KAITO to the list, but only for those who take X posting seriously.
COW is making great profits, but they're really slow at building utility for their token. But by the time they finally introduce revenue sharing, it might already be too late to buy.
As for ENA, yeah, the inflation is intense, which is why I prefer to farm tokens like this. Luckily, there are plenty of ways to earn them instead of buying. Plus, farming ENA can be a solid way to make some extra cash.