Certainly Bullish State of the Market & What's Next #4
BTC price targets, memecoins, DeSci, Solana vs Ethereum and more
Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in Q4 2025, assuming the continuation of a cyclical 4-year pattern.
We love to say “this time is different” but I pray for the good, old, same playbook: BTC goes up, ETH, SOL and other large caps follow, and then everything else (probably memecoins most) moons.
Until the market reaches inflection point and we cool down for 2 years again.
We will be exhausted by one year of crazy pumps, so a rest of 2 years will arrive just on time.
The Q4, 2025 top was notably predicted by Delphi Research already in mid-2023.
Their predictions, which I summarized in this thread, are unfolding well. The notable exceptions are missing ETH approval and BTC reaching its previous ATH earlier in March, due to BTC ETF FOMO.
Huge respect to Delphi!
Things are really aligning, and with the Trump winning, it can potentially lead to more favorable crypto regulations, we could see the final catalyst for a MEGA CRAZY bull run.
This bullish sentiment stands in clear contrast to the “Uncertainly Bullish” state of the market review I shared in July. Now, no more Grayscale ETF outflows and Mt. Gox dumping FUD, no election uncertainty, and interest rates are going down worldwide.
Delphi also called China turning on money printing machine due to deflation risks.
Indeed, China unveiled most aggressive stimulus since the pandemic but many call it insufficient and push for China to print more useless fiat.
Historically, when China has infused liquidity, it has positively influenced the global economy and crypto.
Few on X seem to notice how bullish China is getting for crypto: not just money printing, but also potentially changing restrictive regulation towards crypto.
On top, past Bitcoin halvings ended up with massive BTC pumps, but it took half a year for it to play out: exactly as this time.
Is this all plays out, it would be the most predicted and easiest to play bull run ever.
How Bullish is the Market?
Capriole Investments research offers insightful charts that are worth following.
Their flagship Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index aggregates over 60 key metrics related to Bitcoin, including on-chain data (dormancy flow, supply, hash Ribbons, active addresses etc.), macroeconomic indicators, and equities metrics.
The Index is segmented into phases. We’re currently in the second expansion phase but yet to reach even the highs of March, 2024 and well below 2017, and 2021 market peaks.
TL;DR - bullish.
The founder of Capriole calls for at least $140k in Q4 2025. I asked him directly about ETH, and his take is “definitely 5k and likely a lot more.”
If that’s too low for ya and you believe in technical analysis, then your peak forecast is $210k for BTC.
I want the same playbook as last cycles because I'm heavily exposed to SOL, ETH, and increasingly in DeFi and memecoins.
As BTC started to pump many got frustrated because their alts are not following BTC. Patience, my dear degens. After BTC, alts should follow.
And there’s a lot room for growth.
Altcoin speculation index by the Same Capriole Investments shows that alt rally hasn’t even started. High percentages suggest speculation, while low ones indicate capitulation and possible better altcoin opportunities.
Everywhere you look things look too good to be truly. Which is worrying.
We just entered the Extreme Greed territory.
Yet the greed can stay longer. It stayed above 80 from Nov 2020 to Mar 2021 with minimal pullbacks (Source: Crypto Koryo)
In any case, even if things look bullish, we’ll need cool down periods so don’t just get rekt with leverage. As Raoul Pal says…
Memecoins
The other day I was reading a Financial Times article titled “Bitcoin’s big bang moment is impossible to ignore”.
Normie comments are fascinating to read. You know it: ponzi, fraud, “it has zero utility,” etc.
These supposedly smart people totally don’t get it. And then it hit me.
The same rejection is happening with crypto natives towards memecoins: fraud, zero utility, no value, etc.
What Bitcoin is for normies, memecoins is for meme-sceptic crypto natives. And yet both are going up non-stop and are impossible to ignore. Just check the absolute memecoin outperformance since the election. Major memes did 2x in 10 days.
Memecoins have crossed the Rubicon: Binance and even Coinbase listing memecoins is a huge step towards normalizing memecoins.
Just before listing a bunch of memecoins, Binance posted a research on Memecoins stating that retail investors are exploring novel avenues for wealth generation, and memecoins embody the principles of enhanced transparency and accessibility, by “trying to reduce insider advantages and increase equal availability to investors globally.”
Memecoins reflect “broader shift in how value and cultural significance are intertwined in the modern financial landscape.”
Binance needs to list assets that go up, but low-float, high-FDV tokens do not. That’s why I expect more memecoins to be listed on Binance.
If you're still skeptical about memecoins, I have something that recently outperformed them and could renew your confidence in crypto.
DeSci
Decentralized Science tokens outperformed memecoins last month, only LRT did better (surprised?)
The goal of DeSci is making scientific research more open, accessible, and transparent, giving researchers direct access to funding and data. Where “patients, scientists and investors seed, scale and co-own new medicines and therapeutics outside the confines of traditional pharma.”
Check the tweet by Simon why he’s bullish in DeSci.
After years in science, he saw how funding pressures leading to falsified results, even at top institutions like Oxford. DeSci, with its transparent funding and peer-to-peer review, could prevent it, and promote decentralizing control over research.
If that’s not enough to turn bullish, just last week, Binance invested into Bio protocol (undisclosed valuation and amount), which should put your radar onto DeSci.
Think of Bio as a Y Combinator for on-chain science, where BioDAOs fund, develop, and own projects in fields like rare diseases, mental health, and longevity.
A few of BioDAO tokens are already trading (and pumping):
VitaDAO: Funding and supporting early stage longevity research. VITA doubled in price in a week. Trading at $79M FDV.
HairDAO: The Network State solving hair loss. HAIR trading at $100M FDV.
I actually invested in BIO during their public sale. Tokenomics is interesting but let’s simplify it in a meme:
Overall, if memecoins disappoint you, DeSci is the redemption trade for you. As crypto is the best tool for funding communities, I hope DeSci growths and helps crypto to make a real world impact.
And to finish of with a bit of alpha, check the science pump community :) Link here.
Solana vs Ethereum
Oh, my dear ETH, when will you pump?
My bags grow heavy as I watch memecoin rise.
FOMO tempts me to shift to something strong,
But I hold on tight—hope I’m not wrong.
The greatest wealth generation in this crypto cycle would be bull run never coming to ETH and the entire Ethereum ecosystem.
For the inflows that require to pump $382B market cap behemoth ETH and old DeFi and new low-float, high-FDV tokens, the money would better pump multiple new sectors from this cycle: DeSci, Runes, DeFi on Solana, and other L1s, as well as memecoins.
Ethereum and DeFi degens already got rich last cycle. They all want another 3x to 5x to retire. Maybe we won’t give them this chance? Let them grind for longer.
The money required for a 3x for ETH, would mean 10x for other ecosystems that bring new fresh ideas to crypto.
It's quite possible.
The recently proposed roadmap for ETH 3.0 (Beam Chain) by Justin Drake failed to excite the community. More importantly, it would ship in late 2020s, completely skipping this cycle.
Solana, on the other hand, is on a beast mode.
Recently released research by Syncracy puts Ethereum vs Solana competition into clear comparison.
Last cycle Solana story was driven by future potential, but this time by momentum stemming from fundamentals.
Check out network activity measured relative to ETH. Notable mentions are: TVL growth, DEX and stablecoin volumes, and active addresses.
To be fair, the comparison of Solana vs ETH L1 is a bit unfair as Ethereum’s L2s should be included. But as L2s are still seen as parasitic to Ethereum, the value from L2s is still not clear in retail’s mind.
Even if we look at the dApp revenue level, Solana’s dapps are now rivaling Ethereum.
Despite all this, Solana trades at 33% of Ethereum’s valuation despite strong economic indicators, suggesting room for growth and potential valuation parity.
Is SOL flippening really happening? I believe when this narrative strengthens, it might be a good time to flip back to ETH.
ETH flipping BTC were always the best ETH/BTC top signals.
That’s it for this market recap. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Thanks for your work brother. God bless!
Curious, what dexes do you think will thrive in the peak run 2025-2026? There is so many to choose from :o