Crypto Truths & Lies for the Year 2025

An how to identify non-obvious facts to become a better investor

BTC will reach $250K and ETH $12K in 2025.

That's a prediction I just made up. It might happen or it might not.

Most predictions are like this, although some are supported with (some) data. VanEck offers well-reasoned predictions, while Cathie Wood is known for making grandiose predictions with high numbers. She expects $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030. Saylor? $13m by 2045.

Here’s a great summary of predictions for 2024 by DLNews.

Source: DLNews

But how insightful and helpful are price predictions? It doesn’t really give you actionable insights besides making your diamond hands stronger to HODL.

I propose a different mental framework that can make you a better investor, not just for 2025, but for the future.

"What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"

The question by Peter Thiel intellectually challenging because it's easier to maintain the status quo than to think for yourself.

Matti proposed a rehashed framework of the question by which they evaluate their investments at Zee Prime Capital.

I believe he wrote one of the most important articles of 2024, prompting reflection on the current state of crypto and mental framework on how to beat the market in 2025 and beyond.

“If you listen to chatter and narratives these days what do you think is the obvious truth and what is obviously false? What is the non-obvious truth and what is non-obviously false?” - Matti.

The obvious truth examples of the past cycle are:

• Higher interest rates is bearish for crypto

• War is bad for crypto

And a few obvious lies:

• Crypto supercycle

• Bitcoin is an inflation hedge

• (3,3) cooperation is sustainable and can last

Obvious ones are easy.

He explains that “difference between obvious and non-obvious could be reframed into popular vs unpopular or knowable based on available data and unknowable.”

“The non-obvious truth requires a unique insight while the obvious truth can be seen from afar, yet still not being 100% certain because nothing really is. The division between these does not have to be a binary and perhaps is more scalar.”

The non-obvious truths and lies are much more difficult to identify, but they offer insight in what is likely to happen in the near future when the non-obvious become obvious to all. This is when the crowds come and FOMO begins.

You want to be at the beginning of the FOMO.

Some non-obvious truths from the last cycle:

• UST crash is a matter of time

• FTX is criminal operation

• L2s bring liquidity fragmentation

As well as non-obvious lies:

• SOL is dead

• Gaming is natural PMF for crypto

• New shiny L1 trade is over

Below are examples from Matti’s blog post.

I love this approach and shared my thought process in a 2022 article on counter-narrative trading.

To outperform the market, you must find "ideas or investments that already exist but are either not well-known or disliked by many."

I identified RWA, DeFi Options, SBTs, and Instadapp (INST) as potential counter-narrative trades. While DeFi Options and SBTs went nowhere, RWA and INST performed quite well.

The key here, as always, is timing. It took a year and a half for INST to make its significant upward move.

Off-topic, but writing your trading journal is a superpower. It allows you to revisit your past thoughts and see how your thinking and investment strategies have evolved. Check out my full post on counter-narrative trading below.

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It's easy to identify those truths & lies in hindsight, but predicting the future is really HARD.

Seriously, give it a try. I posed this question on X, and you can read some of the ideas.

Before we continue, feel free to read Matti’s full blog post here for deeper context.

In the rest of this post, I'll share a few truths and lies about the current cycle.

I’ll start with what I think is obvious and then move to the challenging non-obvious part. For additional insights, I also reached out to a few people in the crypto industry for their input.

Here’s the unified framework for 2025.

Obvious Truths

Facts or outcomes that are widely accepted and based on observable evidence.

Ai x Crypto is here to stay

AI has dominated the CT mindshare over the past year and is likely to continue doing so through 2025.

Crypto degens craved for AI tokens, but there were few available, with TAO being the leading choice.

This all changed with the explosion of AI agents. Now, we have crypto-native AI agents that post on X or trade on platforms like Polymarket, along with tools to help launch these AI agents.

I believe it’s an obvious truth that AI x Crypto is here to stay.

It doesn’t mean AI agent tokens will keep mooning. The current AI agents are simple (AIXBT just scans data and others’ opinion to resurface it). It’s also an obvious lie that 2025 will be AI Agent supercycle.

But bubbles end up incentivizing innovation, so similarly like DeFi continued to mature after the DeFi bubble burst, AI agents are here to stay.

Spot ETFs are bullish

I'm still surprised by how many people believe ETFs are bearish. Some argue that "BTC in an ETF is a TradFi wrapper and a Trojan horse that will destroy BTC from within."

For ETH, the ETF is likely to provide a stronger bullish boost than all ETH locked in L2s combined, as TradFi will allocate a portion of their crypto portfolio to both BTC and ETH.

Number go up brrrrr

Stablecoins is the killer app/PMF of crypto

This is Stacy Muur’s insight that continues from last cycle.

Yet this cycle, stablecoins might finally move beyond crypto trading, expanding into the fintech realm.

PayPal has one, Revolut is launching their own, and even Visa might introduce one, despite the potential impact on their margins. As Delphi Digital researcher Robbie predicts, the move is “overshadowed by the risk of disruption.”

Many projects are better pre-TGE

This one is also brought by Stacy Muur.

“In this one, my idea is that overall metrics of 90% of protocols were better before they released their token ($HYPE and $F is an exception from the rule). So before the token went live, products were more "demanded" than post-TGE”

DeFi Made Here agrees. As he eloquently put:

“9/10 chains/projects are garbage with no organic usage and fake TVL backed by private deals”

I share this to remind you that we are working in a very niche business. Like VCs, we can't expect all our investments to pump to the moon.

The truth is that most tokens won't survive for long and will trend downwards. Our task is to find the exceptional token that changes the game.

Obvious lies

Airdrops are dead

Low-float, high-FDV token launches caused a lot of damage, making investments in otherwise great protocols not worthwhile.

But I’m bullish on airdrops for 2025 because expectations are back to the ground and airdrop threads are out of vogue.

Hyperliquid might be not the last great airdrop of this cycle. And it’s not the time to stop clicking buttons.

This take was shared by Aylo as well.

Crypto projects need VC funding to succeed

This is another lesson we learned from low-float, high FDV launches. The VC moat has been shrinking for years. With the rise of public-private sale platforms like Echo and Legion, projects can now raise capital from a diverse group of crypto natives.

Many VCs offered little beyond money and a logo in the deck. Instead, engaging crypto natives gives them a vested interest in the success of their investments.

However, lesser-known projects will still rely on VC funding. Yet, finding "the one 100x" is no longer the exclusive right of VCs.

Bullish.

(Memecoin, AI agent…) supercycle

One word should always put you on the defensive: "supercycle."

The memecoin supercycle was all the rage until old tokens, including "dead ones" like XRP and Litecoin, started to pump.

Now, AI agents is THE PLAY. But this narrative will eventually lose steam relative to a new narrative that isn't on everyone's radar yet.

And coming directly from this lie to the one below….

Retail prefers memecoins above anything else

This take is by CryptoKoryo who tracks narrative price performance and rotations.

His conclusion is as simple as “rotation always end up happening after everybody is in.” To put it simply, anytime someone says that “Project x,y,z (sol, tao, hype, etc.) will dominate the cycle,” it’s probably a lie.

To track this rotation you can check his new analytics tool dexu.ai

Plus, retail is not that dumb anymore: they can get Phantom wallet, find new narratives on Reddit, TikTok and anywhere else.

In fact, a non-obvious truth is that crypto natives might end up buying ‘dumb retail’ bags originating from TikTok rather than CT.

DAOs are decentralized, efficient, "smart," and transparent.

In 2024, I started a new journey: becoming a delegate for several DAOs, including Aave, Lido, Instadapp, Arbitrum, Paraswap, and Uniswap.

The turning point was the Compound DAO attack, where an attacker managed to pass a vote allocating $24 million in COMP tokens.

The issue? The DAO was too apathetic, and token holders were simply unaware of the vote. Pathetic.

To strengthen DAOs, highlight critical votes, and explore this as a potential career path, I decided to become a DAO delegate.

Throughout this, I learned many lessons worthy of a future blog post. But I reached out to Doo from Stablelabs for his extra insights, as he has been operating a DAO delegate company for several years.

His insights confirm what many of us suspect to be false:

• DAOs are not truly decentralized, efficient, transparent, or run by the "smart" money.

• Additionally, DAO treasuries are finite and can go bankrupt.

• Most DAOs are often still led by founders or core teams and are relationship-based.

• They are also protectionist.

• DAOs can be protectionist

Case in question: Uniswap DAO had no idea Unichain was in development. hahahahah. :(

Why is it important?

We can't keep deceiving ourselves and the community; the current DAO model isn’t sustainable and needs disruption. Whoever can radically improve the DAO model will create a new, successful business.

Non-Obvious Truths

Insights not immediately apparent or widely recognized, requiring deeper understanding or unique analysis.

Bitcoin is a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.

Blackrock’s head of crypto mocks crypto native commentators/researchers who perpetuate the believe that BTC is a risk-on asset and trade it on unemployment, non-farm payrolls, or ISM manufacturing index data.

BTC can’t be a digital gold and and a risk-on asset at the same time.

Blackrock claims in their 2024 research that Bitcoin is a unique diversifier with the following features:

• Bitcoin, with its high volatility, is obviously a “risky” asset. However, most of the risk and potential return drivers bitcoin faces are fundamentally different from traditional “risky” assets, making it unfitting for most traditional finance frameworks - including the “risk on” vs. “risk off framework employed by some macro commentators

• Bitcoin’s nature as a scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized global asset has caused some investors to consider it as a flight to safety option in times of fear and around certain geopolitically disruptive events.

• Over the long term, bitcoin's adoption trajectory is likely to be driven by the intensity of concerns over global monetary stability, geopolitical stability, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and U.S. political stability. This is the inverse of the relationship that is generally attributed to traditional "risk assets" with respect to such forces.

BTC sometimes sells-off at the start of a big macro event. Yet chaos, turmoil, potential for money printing is bullish for BTC.

BlackRock’s Research “Bitcoin: A Unique Diversifier.”

The danger lies in commentators continuing to portray BTC as a risk-on asset, which confuses TradFi that embraced Bitcoin as digital gold.

Perception can become reality.

Utility isn’t necessary for a token

And (almost) every crypto project will launch a token at some point.

Think about it: Which DeFi protocol wouldn’t work without a token?

Uniswap can work perfectly fine without UNI, Aave, Maker, Fluid, Ethena… All of them can work without a token.

Yet all of them have it. Why? For governance? Community? Fundraising? …

In fact, I answered the question in my 2022’s thread.

Years ago, launching a token required some justification of utility. Not anymore.

Memecoins changed that perception the most, but Arkham’s $ARKM token launched was a pivotal moment.

If analytics platform can launch a token, any crypto project can: wallets, extensions, marketing agencies…

The trend continues with Nansen and Kaito's future token drops, but 2025 promises to be even crazier. Anything that captures mindshare can tokenize. Utility is not important; mindshare, community, and users are.

This was actually an insight shared to me by Aylo that mindshare and price are correlated.

My advice mirrors that for DeFi protocols: click buttons, register for any analytical tool gaining traction, share your referrals, and avoid the "why does it need a token" discussions.

It needs a token because it makes us (early users & founders) rich.

DeFi is more centralized than CeFi

This is a spicy take brought to by Defi Made Here.

Here the centralization isn’t related to blockchain decentralization, or self-custody.

As DMH argues “very few protocols have the majority of TVL, very few risk providers that are working for the same projects and have vested interest in each, etc etc)”

Here’s the unedited quote:

J.P. Morgan has ~12% market share in USA, aave has 50-70% market share

L2s are multibillion unregulated multisigs

Tether is a hundred billion multisig

Chainlink almost solely controls all value in defi

The same risk assessment teams are on paychecks for different protocols and they clearly have a conflict of interest

Etc etc etc

So the argument is that business and TVL concentration is denser in DeFi than in CeFi. As USDC collapse showed, reliant on a few actors can be damaging for DeFi.

I'm optimistic about DeFi. As the market matures, more players will enter the industry, and risks will decrease over time.

Tether USDT dominance days are over

USDT’s dominance in the crypto stablecoin market is coming to an end as the landscape evolves with new players and use cases. Currently, Tether leads in trading and collateral.

Ethena 2025: Convergence

However, the future lies in two rapidly growing areas: savings products and payments.

TradFi is entering the on-chain savings market, while fintech and Web2 incumbents are moving into crypto payments (Visa, if launched a stablecoin, would be a major player).

Though these categories are relatively small today, they can drive over $50B in new flows within the next two years (Ethena’s projection).

Ethena and Sky are already leading in savings, while sUSDe stands to benefit from the integration of traditional finance.

In payments, the TON ecosystem is leveraging Telegram’s network to build seamless crypto-native solutions.

So the stablecoin wars are shifting from trading and SoV dominance to innovation in savings and payments, marking the start of a new era in crypto.

On top, crypto regulation like MiCA is pushing Tether out of the EU and other markets. As an EU citizen, I’m no longer touching USDT, even though in DeFi USDT is still an option.

Non-Obvious Lies

Fee switch is bullish for the token price

“Be careful what you wish for, you may receive it.”

Token fee switches are often the top demand from token holders. However, revenue sharing is not a cure-all for token prices; it's simply one of the bullish narratives for the token.

Remember #realyield narrative from 2 years ago?

In truth, most protocols don’t generate high enough revenue to add significant price appreciate to the token as revenue/MC ratios are crazy in crypto.

However, the fee switch isn't bad. It becomes problematic when protocols generate significant revenue, but the token trades below the market cap of the DAO treasury assets. This lead to a few DAO shutdowns.

I believe the fee switch doesn't impact how high the token can pump; instead, it sets a floor price for how low the token can trade. If revenue sharing is active and the revenue is significant, the token becomes worth buying at some point.

The bull run will continue for another year, ending in Q4.

I agree. This one is more like a prediction than a truth/lie.

I included this because there is a strong consensus on CT that 2025 will be the year to sell, likely in early Q4. Notably, Delphi forecasts a new BTC ATH in Q4 2024.

But can it really be this easy?

In 2023, the general consensus was that ETH would outperform BTC in 2024, and Solana would remain dead.

However, like most consensus trades, I believe something will disrupt the bull cycle, either by delaying or extending it.

It will indeed be an interesting year.

Ethereum L2 UX/UI fragmentation will last forever

I believe Ethereum's underperformance is largely due to a poorer user experience compared to what Solana offers. The challenges are evident.

• Ethereum is slower and more expensive than Solana

• The increasing number of L2s contributes to liquidity and UX fragmentation

• Developers must choose a specific L2 for their app to succeed, unlike building on monolithic Solana

This poor user experience is extremely noticeable if you use Metamask. But the UX/UI is improving with each passing day.

OP Superchain and similar alliances within Polygon and zkSync are enhancing back-end user experience. However, if Delphi Digital's prediction on the Fat Wallet thesis holds true, UX issues could be resolved as early as 2025.

The Fat Wallet Thesis addresses Ethereum L2 user experience issues by positioning wallets as the key to solving inefficiencies.

As protocols and applications “thin out,” wallets become the front-end aggregators, simplifying interactions like bridging and liquidity management through chain abstraction.

By integrating Payment-For-Order-Flow (PFOF) and offering Distribution as a Service (DaaS), wallets can streamline access to dApps, reduce friction, and improve transaction execution.

Wallets also leverage their proximity to users, creating a more intuitive and seamless experience, addressing high switching costs and building a smoother L2 onboarding process, which ultimately boosts user adoption.

And now with the rise of AI agents, the UX improves as agents perform all the necessary bridging for humans.

NFT are dead

This is a funny one. Some find it obviously false, while others believe it to be true. That's why I've placed it in the "not-obviously false" category.

Currently, it might seem like an obvious lie due to the PENGU airdrop and the significant impact it had on the entire NFT space. But with a few exceptions NFTs were bleeding for whole year.

However, I'm looking ahead to what the next big thing in NFTs will be.

For me, 2024 was a year of Bitcoin Ordinals alongside the PENGU launch. I want NFTs to progress beyond profile pictures and cultural icons.

Perhaps NFTs can evolve in the AI era by providing indisputable proof that photos are original and haven't been AI-created or modified.

One thing for sure is that NFTs feel stagnant, but they are not.

Something revolutionary needs to be built.

What are your non-obvious truths and lies?

You might disagree with my takes. And it’s good! It means there’s potential for you to make money from something that’s not a consensus yet but will soon become one.

Builders need to move beyond the "obvious" and seek non-obvious truths to build lasting and meaningful projects. Buzzwords and trendy narratives (e.g., “hot topics” in crypto) often lead to superficial efforts, lacking genuine innovation.

Matti gave great advice in his blog post.

For founders:

• Align efforts with genuine curiosity and first-principles thinking.

• Avoid building merely based on popular trends or narratives.

And for most of my readers, as investors:

• Assess whether a founder’s vision is based on surface-level obvious truths or on deeper, unique insights.

• Non-obvious truths are more likely to yield groundbreaking products and companies.

The ability to distinguish between obvious/non-obvious truths and lies helps investors to back ideas with genuine potential rather than mere hype.

So, please share your takes in the comments!